用户名:密 码:注册|找回密码设置首页 |财经日报旗下网站

当前位置 > 首页 > 原创新闻 > 美联储加息25基点 年内或再加息一次

美联储加息25基点 年内或再加息一次

发布时间:2017-06-15 09:26来源:财经新闻网黄潮洁字号:

  作者 康路 发自纽约

  北京时间6月15日凌晨2点,美联储6月会议宣布加息25个基点,将联邦基准利率从0.75%~1%的区间上调至1%~1.25%的区间。这是美联储年内第二次加息,也是2008年金融危机之后的第四次加息。

  美联储在声明中表示,考虑到经济继续温和增长,劳动力市场持续好转,做出加息决策。美联储在声明中同时表示,大多数联储官员预测2018年将加息3次,预计今年将再加息一次。

  美联储决策委员们预计,联邦基金利率2017年年底预期为1.4%,这意味着今年还有一次加息。而据CME“美联储观察”(FedWatch)显示,投资者预计,美联储今年再加息一次的可能仅为35%。

  近期美国通胀数据疲软,一度让市场参与人士对美联储6月行动力有所怀疑。数据显示,美国失业率已经降至4.3%的历史低点,但就业增长并未带来预想中的通胀回暖。今年4月,美国CPI同比增速自2015年底以来首次跌至2%以下。此外,美联储主席耶伦所看重的的通胀指标个人消费支出指数(PCE)也将处于1.5%的低位。在联储利率公布当日,美国公布的CPI和零售数据均低于市场预期。

  在6月利率决议声明中,美联储同时列出4.5万亿资产负债表的缩减计划,将以每月100亿美元缩减起步,其中包括每月缩减国债再投资60亿美元,并缩减抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)再投资40亿美元。缩表规模将按季度扩大。

  点阵图显示,只有一名委员反对本次加息。明尼苏达联储主席Neel Kashhari表示,他希望等到通胀上升时再加息。

  美联储预计,2017年年底、2018年年底、2019年年底的联邦基金利率分别为1.4%,2.1%和2.9%,与此前的预期一致。

  以下是美联储6月份货币政策声明的全文:

  自联邦公开市场委员会5月份召开会议以来所收到的信息表明,就业市场已继续增强,今年截至目前为止经济活动一直都在温和上升。自年初以来,就业增长有所慢化,但平均而言一直都很稳健,失业率则已有所下降。家庭支出在最近几个月中有所改善,企业固定投资则已继续扩张。按12个月基础计算的通货膨胀最近以来有所下降,而且跟不计入粮食和能源价格的指标一样在某种程度上低于2%。整体而言,以市场为基础的通胀补偿指标仍旧保持在较低水平;以调查报告为基础的长期通胀预期指标则基本保持不变。

  联邦公开市场委员会正在依据其法定使命来寻求培育最大就业和物价稳定。联邦公开市场委员会目前预计,通过逐步调整货币政策立场的方式,经济活动将以稳健的步伐扩张,就业市场状况将进一步在某种程度上有所增强。按12个月基础计算的通货膨胀近期预计仍将在一定程度上低于2%,但从中期来看则将持稳在联邦公开市场委员会的2%目标附近。经济前景的近期风险看似大致平衡,但联邦公开市场委员会正在密切通货膨胀的形势发展。

  考虑到已实现及预期的就业市场状况和通货膨胀,联邦公开市场委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至1%至1.25%。货币政策立场仍将保持宽松,从而为就业市场状况的进一步加强和通货膨胀持续重返2%提供支持。

  为了判定联邦基金利率目标区间未来调整的时机选择和规模,联邦公开市场委员会将对有关其最大就业和2%通货膨胀目标的已实现和预期经济状况进行评估。这种评估将把一系列广泛的信息考虑在内,包括有关就业市场状况的指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、以及有关金融和国际形势发展的读数等。联邦公开市场委员会将仔细监控与其对称性通货膨胀目标相关的实际和预期将有的通货膨胀发展形势。联邦公开市场委员会预计,经济状况的发展将可令其有理由逐步上调联邦基金利率;在一段时间之内,联邦基金利率很可能仍将保持在低于长期普遍值的水平。但是,联邦基金利率的实际道路将依赖于未来数据所表明的经济前景。

  联邦公开市场委员会将维持现有的政策,将来自于所持机构债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的本金付款再投资到机构抵押贷款支持债券中去,在国债发售交易中对即将到期的美国国债进行展期。联邦公开市场委员会目前预计将从今年开始实施一项资产负债表正常化计划,前提是经济形势的演进发展广泛符合预期。这项计划将通过减少将来自于证券的本金付款用于再投资的方式来逐步降低美联储对那些证券的持有量,联邦公开市场委员会在附录的“政策正常化原则和计划”(Policy Normalization Principles and Plans)中对这项计划进行了描述。

  在此次会议上投票支持联邦公开市场委员会货币政策行动的委员有:主席珍妮特·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)、副主席威廉·杜德利(William C. Dudley)、莱尔·布莱恩纳德(Lael Brainard)、查尔斯·埃文斯(harles L. Evans)、斯坦利·费希尔(Stanley Fischer)、帕特里克·哈克(Patrick Harker)、罗伯特·卡普兰(Robert S. Kaplan)和杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome H. Powell)。尼尔·凯西卡瑞(Neel Kashkari)则投了反对票,他更希望在此次会议上维持现有的联邦基金利率目标区间。

  美联储声明原文如下:

  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. See Fed statement.

  Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

  In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-? percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. See Fed ‘dot plot’

  In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

  The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.

  Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

(财编:黄潮洁)